.png)
As we step into 2026, I've been reflecting on where authentication and digital identity are headed. Last year brought some exciting shifts: passkeys gained real momentum, digital ID programs went live in several regions, and AI agents began changing how we think about machine-to-machine trust. This year, I think we'll see these trends accelerate in ways that change how we build auth systems.
1. We are entering the age of digital trust
2026 will mark the beginning of the "age of digital trust." For years, the industry has talked about passwordless authentication, biometrics, and zero trust architecture as future concepts. That future is now here. Several shifts are converging:
The EUDI wallet is coming: The European Union Digital Identity (EUDI) wallet legislation is moving from policy to reality. By mid-2026, we'll see the first implementations going live, and this isn't just a European story. It's setting the blueprint for how governments worldwide will approach digital identity.
Digital IDs are going mainstream: In the US, around 20 states have launched or are actively launching mobile driver's licenses (mDL), with over 5 million already issued. The UK announced its national digital ID scheme in September 2025 with full rollout planned by 2029. Australia's Digital ID Act came into effect in 2024, and Queensland launched its state Digital ID in April 2025. The EU has set December 2026 as the deadline for EUDI wallet rollout, with pilot programs already running. Spain, Poland, Austria, Denmark, Estonia, and Norway all have active programs. New Zealand is working toward its digital driver's license launch in 2026.
What this means: The infrastructure is being built right now. By late 2026, consumers in multiple regions will have government-backed, portable digital identities they can use across services. For developers and businesses, this means rethinking onboarding flows, identity verification, and compliance. The organizations that figure out how to integrate these digital IDs seamlessly will have a significant competitive advantage.
2. Passkeys are becoming the default finally
If 2025 was the year passkeys proved themselves, 2026 is the year they become the default choice for new applications.
The shift is clear: companies building new apps, especially in fintech and consumer-facing spaces like Moneygram, are asking themselves "how do we passkey-first our UX?" instead of "should we add passkey support?" That's a big change.
The passwordless-first mindset: The conversation has evolved from "passwords with MFA bolted on" to "how do we build authentication that's actually passwordless from day one?" Passkeys solve the phishing problem, improve UX, and reduce support costs. The ROI is clear now.
Platform support maturity: Apple, Google, and Microsoft have all matured their passkey implementations. Cross-device passkeys work reliably. The rough edges from early adoption have been smoothed out. Developers have the tools and documentation they need.
The network effect kicks in: As more services adopt passkeys, users become familiar with the flow. That initial learning curve, which was a barrier in 2024, is disappearing. We're reaching that tipping point where users expect passkey support.
3. For digital identity to take off, UX is the differentiator
Great security with terrible UX doesn't get adopted. The industry has learned this lesson with passwords, MFA, and every authentication innovation before it.
In 2026, the companies that win in the digital identity space won't just have the most secure solution. They'll have the solution that consumers actually want to use and that fades into the background.
What good UX looks like:
- Onboarding that takes seconds
- Authentication that feels invisible when risk is low
- Clear, understandable prompts when step-up authentication is needed
- Seamless recovery flows when things go wrong
The Apple principle: To quote Johnny Ive (and I'm paraphrasing here): technology should get out of the way so users can focus on what they're actually trying to do. That applies doubly to authentication. Nobody wakes up wanting to authenticate. They want to pay a bill, book a trip, or access their account. Our job is to make authentication so smooth it's forgettable.
The risk for vendors: Companies building digital identity solutions with clunky UX will get left behind, even if their underlying technology is sound. In 2026, UX becomes the primary differentiator.
4. Transaction-based trust replaces binary authentication
We're moving beyond the simple logged-in/logged-out model to something far more nuanced: transaction-based trust.
The old model: You authenticate once, you're in. Maybe you re-authenticate every 30 days or when your session expires. Every action within that session is equally trusted.
The new model: Trust is evaluated per transaction based on risk signals. Checking your balance? Low friction. Transferring $10,000 to a new recipient? Higher friction, step-up authentication required. This is adaptive authentication taken to its logical conclusion.
Why Now?:
- AI and ML models have gotten good enough to assess risk in real-time without killing performance
- Consumers are trained by their banks and payment apps to expect this behavior. It feels normal now.
- The fraud landscape demands it. Static authentication models can't keep up with sophisticated attacks.
What this means for builders: Your authentication system needs to support dynamic risk assessment and step-up flows without forcing users through unnecessary friction. This is where platforms like Authsignal come in.
5. The rise of AI bots changes everything
This is the wildcard prediction, and possibly the most consequential.
The context: We're seeing AI agents and autonomous bots go through a massive hype cycle right now. Some of it is overblown, sure. But underneath the hype, real standards are being developed. MCP (Model Context Protocol) and A2A (Agent-to-Agent) protocols are being thoughtfully defined. We've already seen ideas like Dynamic Client Registration get ditched in favor of more practical approaches like Client ID metadata specification.
What's Coming: Over the next two years, the dust will settle. Consumer use cases for AI agents will emerge and become clear. And when they do, authentication patterns will be needed for:
- Autonomous agents acting on behalf of users
- Machine-to-machine trust at scale
- Delegated access with granular permissions
- Auditability for actions taken by agents
The authentication challenge: How do you authenticate an AI agent? How does a service know the agent is acting with proper authorization from its user? How do you revoke access when needed? These aren't theoretical questions anymore.
The reality: This will be messy for a while. Competing standards, failed approaches, and lots of iteration are inevitable. But by the end of 2026, the winning patterns will start becoming clear. Companies building authentication infrastructure need to be watching this space closely and thinking about how their systems will need to evolve.
What this means for you
Whether you're a developer, a product leader, or a CISO, here's what I'd suggest:
Start planning for digital IDs: They're coming faster than you think. Understand the standards (ISO 18013-5 for mDL, etc.) and start thinking about integration points.
Make passkeys your default: If you're building something new, make it passkey-first. If you're maintaining existing auth flows, start planning your migration.
Invest in UX: Great security with poor UX is useless security. Test your flows with real users. Measure friction. Iterate relentlessly.
Build for transaction-based trust: Your authentication system should support risk-based, adaptive flows. Static "you're in or you're out" models won't cut it.
Watch the AI agent space: Even if you're not building for agents today, understand the emerging patterns. The authentication landscape will shift as agent use cases mature.
Final thoughts
2026 is going to be an exciting year for authentication space. The industry is moving from legacy patterns that have dominated for decades to new paradigms that are more secure, more user-friendly, and more adaptable to the ways people (and soon, agents) actually interact with digital services.
The organizations that embrace these shifts early will have a significant advantage. The ones that cling to old models will find themselves scrambling to catch up.
This is going to be a fascinating year to watch unfold. Let's build something better together.
What are your predictions for passwordless auth in 2026? Connect with me on LinkedIn or reach out to our team at Authsignal.
.svg)
